Donald Trump will be president :
SUNY professor predicts with 97 percent certainty
By Geoff Herbert | firstname.lastname@example.org
February 25, 2016 at 2:47 PM
President Trump? A SUNY professor says he's "almost certain" it will happen.
Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University, says that his statistical model predicted Donald Trump will win the election if he's the Republican nominee. The billionaire businessman has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders, according to Norpoth.
The Statesman reports Norpoth uses statistics from candidates' performances in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast national election results. The equation correctly predicted Bill Clinton's victory in 1996, George W. Bush in 2004, and Barack Obama in 2012.
In fact, Norpoth's model has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1912 except one, according to the Daily Mail. In 1960, John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon in one of the closest races in U.S. history.
"When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke," Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan. "Well, I'll tell you right now, it ain't a joke anymore."
He added that the Republican party overall has a 61 percent chance of putting a GOP candidate in the White House, but Clinton has a 55 percent chance of winning in a hypothetical race with Cruz or Marco Rubio.
But Trump's success in the primaries, winning three out of four GOP contests to date, has made him the favorite by far in Norpoth's model -- especially if he gets the Republican nomination.
"The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It's almost 'Take it to the bank,'" Norpoth said.