The Primary Model

forecasting presidential elections since 1912


  • forecasts
    • 2024
    • 2022
    • 2020
    • 2016
    • 2012
    • 2008
  • press
    • The Hill: 6.5.20
    • Fox News: 5.29.20
    • The Hill: 5.5.20
    • Newsday: 4.17.20
    • NY Post: 3.28.20 (Linge Op-Ed)
    • O'Reilly Factor - Talking Points (Video)
    • USA TODAY 7.29.16
    • Newsday 7.28.16
    • HuffPost Blog: 3.7.16
    • SBU Statesman : 2.26.16
    • New York Post - 2.26.16
    • Fox and Friends
    • Daily Mail UK -2.25.16
    • The Moderate Voice -
    • The Blaze - 2.25.16
    • Althouse - 2.25.26
    • The Daily Wire - 2.25.16
    • Syracuse.com - 2.25.16
    • Daily Caller - 2.23.16
    • Die Zeit - 8.24.13
    • Wonk Blog - 8.31.12
    • Real Clear Politics - 8.14.12
    • Huffington Post/Pollster - 10.8.12
    • Real Clear Politics - 8.14.12
    • Asan Institute - 7.7.12
    • Huffington Post/Pollster - 9.22.11
    • New Republic - 11.15.10
    • Washington Post - 5.19.2008
    • Huffington Post/Pollster - 1.1.2008
    • Political Science & Politics - 1.10.2008
    • MPSA - 4.3.2008
  • blog
  • documents
    • A Perfect Storm (2020)
    • 2016 Forecast Model Full Version
    • Time for a Change? Forecasting 2008
    • Comfort for Obama: History is on His Side in 2012
    • Against All Odds: The Red-Green Victory
  • contact
  • author
  • links

Links

Stony Brook University Experts Profile

Washington Post 

New York Times

WonkBlog

APSA

Stony Brook University Department of Political Science

University of Michigan  (Political Science)

Asan Institute 

Asan Institute (Vimeo)  

2012 Forecast (SBU Press Release)

Real Clear Politics

Fox News Channel

CNN