February 25, 2016

"The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president..."

Says Stony Brook University political scientist and professor Helmut Norpoth, whose "primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent."

“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.” Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”

As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general election.

I know some people have trouble accepting Trump as President, but I just want to say that I don't accept "forecasted" as a word.

Posted by Ann Althouse at 2:08 PM 

Tags: 2016 campaign, Donald Trump