GOP Near Certain to Take the House in 2022 Midterm Election

Disapproval of President Biden gives the Republicans a 99-percent chance to win control of the House of Representatives in the midterm election this fall.

This forecast is based on the effect of presidential approval on seats won by his party in House midterm elections from 1946 to 2018. Running 10,000 simulations of the approval-seat model produced 99 wins out of 100 for Republicans in 2022 and 1 out of 100 for the Democrats.

Biden’s low approval (38 percent in the RCP average of polls right now) predicts an expected loss of 41 seats for the Democrats, giving Republicans a majority most likely of 254 seats in the House.