PUBLISHED: 10:08 EST, 25 February 2016 | UPDATED: 21:40 EST, 25 February 2016
'Take it to the bank!'
Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary in the general election says college professor who is 'almost certain' the Donald WILL be the next U.S. president
- Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump a 97 percent chance of beating Clinton in November - if he's the GOP nominee
- He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent
- Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960
- If either Rubio or Cruz were the GOP nominee, the model shows them losing to Clinton but winning against Sanders
- US Election 2016: See more of the latest poll news and primary updates
If a professor at Stony Brook University is correct, Donald J Trump will be the next President of the United States.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump with a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent.
'The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,' Norpoth told Stony Brook's school newspaper, The Statesman, 'if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.'
The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election
'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.
He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'
Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.
Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in second twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.
Trump's success in the primaries is part of the reason the numbers skew so heavily in his favor as that's an important part of Norpoth's model.
Now the favorite is looking ahead to the Super Tuesday contests.
While a lot of polling hasn't been done in the 12 states where Republicans will head to the polls or caucus sites, Trump has a 12 point lead in Georgia, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3463915/Trump-97-percent-chance-beating-Hillary-Clinton-general-election-says-college-professor-certain-Donald-U-S-president.html#ixzz41F87Ypx4
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