The PRIMARY MODEL predicts that in a race of New Hampshire Primary winners, Democrat Hillary Clinton would narrowly defeat Republican John McCain in the November general election (50.5 to 49.5 percent of the two-party vote). The predicted margin of victory, however, is so small that the confidence attached to this forecast is less than 60 percent, given the size of the forecast standard error (2.5).

 

In match-ups between the Republican primary winner and Democratic primary losers, McCain would end up in a virtual tie with Barack Obama  (49.9 to 50.1 percent) while defeating John Edwards (52.2 to 47.8 percent) by a margin close to one unit of the forecast standard error (2.6). At the same time, in match-ups between the Democratic primary winner and Republican primary losers, Clinton would dispatch Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudolph Giuliani by margins way beyond that error range.

 

Finally, in match-ups between primary losers, both Obama and Edwards would beat any of the Republicans, and quite handily so in most cases. Candidates not listed in the forecast table would do no better than the weakest one in their respective parties.

 

Vote in the New Hampshire Primary, Jan. 8, 2008:

Republicans: McCain (37.2), Romney (31.6), Huckabee (11.2), Giuliani(8.6) Democrats: Clinton (39.2), Obama (36.4), Edwards (16.9)

1/9/2008, 8:53 AM EST